薛瑞察(Reza Kheirkhah)

私立屏榮高級中學世界語社團教師/當代南亞與中東戰略研究中心學術顧問委員會委員

譯:李賜賢

潤稿:黃捷歆

美國與伊朗這兩國在經過36年充滿敵意且毫無外交關係之後,伊朗與六大強權之間在2015年7月14日通過了一項協議,這不僅對於伊朗,更對於中東地區,乃至全世界都是重要的一大步。國際社會在面對如伊斯蘭國(ISIS)這般的巨大威脅挑戰下,加上背後還有許多更大的宗教團體威脅著中東地區的和平關係,最後大家總算認為備受西方國家質疑的伊朗核計畫更應該盡快透過外交方式來解決,以便騰出更多的心力來關注其他更重要的議題。

這項核子協議主要是由長期敵對的伊朗與美國所討論,最後完成簽署,這不僅對世界任何一個角落,特別是對伊朗人民而言,將會感受到這項協議對其日常生活產生正面的影響。

與伊拉克8年具破壞性的戰爭(1980-1988年)、及充滿爭議性的總統執政8年後(2006-2014年內賈德(Mr. Ahmadi Nejad)總統),伊朗再也無法負擔更多威脅國家穩定的經濟及政治壓力。於是伊朗人民投票支持新總統,這位總統承諾會與國際社會合作,並減少聯合國、歐盟與美國針對伊朗核計畫的經濟制裁。

另一方面,當西方國家意識到若不解決伊朗核問題,就幾乎不可能應付中東地區的許多問題,因此他們決定盡力,也許是最後一次,與伊朗的新政府談判並達成協議。

當這紙協議在歷經一年多馬拉松式的會議與討論之後完成簽署,伊朗全國各地的人們紛紛湧上街頭歡慶這歷史性的一刻。由伊朗平民所拍攝的許多照片與影片當中可以知道,這紙協議對大多數伊朗人的意義:這代表與世界敵對的時代過去了,取而代之的是能夠帶給他們和平、繁榮以及能與其他世界各國正常交往、保持互動關係的新時代。然而,在伊朗內部許多強硬派對此表示不滿,因為他們認為美國和所有的西方世界都是他們永遠的敵人。

伊朗核協議簽署之後,德黑蘭的股市立刻有所反應,股市指數大大地上升許多,反映出人民對於未來充滿信心,股市態度從原本的懷疑變成樂觀。美元和其他主要貨幣兌換伊朗里拉(Rial)的匯率則暴跌,這是對於核協議簽署後的實質經濟與政治效應表達為時尚早的反應。

此份核協議因為還有許多細節需要討論,例如簽署的雙方對於聯合行動計畫的要點尚有許多不同的解釋,所以仍然還有很長的路要走。

值得注意的是,有許多國家和政黨並不樂見這紙協議,因為他們不相信伊朗會遵守協議,或者他們認為在可預見的將來或遙遠的未來,該協議依然無法阻止伊朗遂行核武計畫野心的意志。

然而,世界上大多數的國家和人民都樂見這歷史性的一刻,能與伊朗完成簽署核協議,大多數的人相信這個世界現在變得更安全、更好了。

The Nuclear Agreement between Iran and the World

 A Historical Event for Iranian People and the World

After 36 years of hostility and no diplomatic relations between two countries, Iran and the USA, last week’s agreement between Iran and 6 powerful countries is a very important step not only for Iran, but also for the Middle East and even the whole world. Confronting the big challenge and danger of ISIS for the international community and the instability of the Middle East which is threatening the peace and relationship between the followers of the biggest religious groups, at last everyone was convinced that the nuclear program of Iran, which was under suspicion by many western countries, should be resolved by diplomatic means, to make room for paying the attention to more important issues.

The nuclear agreement, which was mostly discussed by the two longtime foes, Iran and the USA, at last was signed and more than anywhere in the world, Iranian people would feel it’s positive impacts on their every day’s life.

After having a destructive war with Iraq for 8 years (1980 – 1988) and having a problematic president (Mr. Ahmadi Nejad) again for another 8 years (2006 – 2014), Iran could no more bear the economic and political pressure that threatened the country’s stability. Iranian people voted for a new president, who promised to work with the international community and bring down many economic resolutions and sanctions which were issued by the UN, European Unions and US against Iran’s nuclear program.

On the other side when the western world realized that without solving the nuclear issue with Iran, it is almost impossible to deal with so many problems in the Middle East; they decided to try their best, maybe for the last time, to get to an agreement with the new Iranian government.

When the agreement was signed after a marathon of meetings and discussions for more than a year, Iranians all around the country rushed to the streets and began to celebrate it. Many photos and videos taken by ordinary Iranians show that for most of Iranians it means the end of an era of hostility with the world and the beginning of a new era which will bring them peace, prosperity and normalized relationship with so many countries around the world. However, many hardliners in Iran are not happy about this agreement, because they consider USA and the whole West their eternal enemy.

After signing the agreement, Tehran stock market reacted immediately and the stock index rose considerably, which was the reflection of trust about the future and skepticism changed into optimism. The equivalency of US dollar and other main currencies against Rial was plunged down though still it is too early to see the practical economic and political consequences of such an important event.

Still there is a long way ahead to go with so many details in the agreement and the different interpretations which both sides have about the points of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

It must be mentioned that there are countries and parties which don’t welcome this agreement, as they don’t believe that Iran would compile with it, or they think that the agreement will not stop Iran from its will to follow its ambitious nuclear program in a near or far future.

However, most of the world powers and people are happy about the historical event of signing nuclear agreement with Iran, as they believe the world is a safer and better place now.

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